Model
GSSM — goals scored/surrendered model, ported from the Excel workbook and validated against it (Solver coefficients reproduced to 7 decimals on 2024-25 data; the workbook's classification off-by-one is fixed here).
E[home MOV] = b₀ + b₁·GFH(home) + b₂·GAH(home) + b₃·GFA(away) + b₄·GAA(away)
P(home win) = P( N(E[MOV], SE) > 0 ), SE = √(SSE / (n−2))
The model refits nightly on all final games of the season (minimum 60). Predictions are stored pre-game and scored out-of-sample as results arrive — the Accuracy page is the honest ledger the spreadsheet couldn't keep.
Fit history
| Fitted (UTC) | Games | b₀ | GFH | GAH | GFA | GAA | SE | In-sample acc | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 11:30 | 246 | -0.086 | 0.861 | -0.807 | -0.902 | 0.822 | 2.285 | 66.3% | 0.199 |
| 2026-11-03 11:30 | 235 | -0.357 | 0.852 | -0.730 | -0.882 | 0.827 | 2.290 | 67.2% | 0.198 |
| 2026-11-02 11:30 | 231 | -0.161 | 0.805 | -0.761 | -0.875 | 0.831 | 2.289 | 68.4% | 0.197 |
| 2026-11-01 11:30 | 226 | 0.088 | 0.790 | -0.811 | -0.857 | 0.804 | 2.235 | 68.6% | 0.193 |
| 2026-10-31 10:30 | 216 | -0.033 | 0.843 | -0.797 | -0.874 | 0.785 | 2.256 | 66.2% | 0.197 |
| 2026-10-30 10:30 | 213 | 0.050 | 0.825 | -0.793 | -0.867 | 0.770 | 2.236 | 67.1% | 0.197 |
| 2026-10-29 10:30 | 202 | 0.201 | 0.807 | -0.805 | -0.849 | 0.737 | 2.264 | 65.8% | 0.195 |
| 2026-10-28 10:30 | 198 | -0.058 | 0.831 | -0.783 | -0.816 | 0.751 | 2.274 | 66.7% | 0.196 |
| 2026-10-27 10:30 | 187 | -0.283 | 0.845 | -0.733 | -0.844 | 0.772 | 2.249 | 67.4% | 0.190 |
| 2026-10-26 10:32 | 184 | -0.297 | 0.878 | -0.720 | -0.861 | 0.745 | 2.199 | 67.9% | 0.186 |
| 2026-10-25 15:50 | 179 | -0.278 | 0.869 | -0.726 | -0.858 | 0.752 | 2.202 | 67.6% | 0.188 |
| 2026-10-25 10:30 | 179 | -0.278 | 0.869 | -0.726 | -0.858 | 0.752 | 2.202 | 67.6% | 0.188 |
| 2026-10-24 10:30 | 167 | -0.489 | 0.878 | -0.762 | -0.795 | 0.780 | 2.188 | 67.1% | 0.190 |
| 2026-10-23 10:30 | 165 | -0.604 | 0.881 | -0.777 | -0.791 | 0.822 | 2.185 | 67.3% | 0.189 |
| 2026-10-22 10:30 | 153 | -0.513 | 0.852 | -0.713 | -0.816 | 0.802 | 2.142 | 67.3% | 0.181 |
| 2026-10-21 10:30 | 151 | -0.527 | 0.837 | -0.683 | -0.813 | 0.792 | 2.126 | 67.5% | 0.181 |
| 2026-10-20 10:30 | 140 | -0.311 | 0.775 | -0.630 | -0.805 | 0.719 | 2.129 | 72.1% | 0.176 |
| 2026-10-19 10:30 | 136 | -0.423 | 0.758 | -0.594 | -0.793 | 0.732 | 2.130 | 72.8% | 0.171 |
| 2026-10-18 10:30 | 134 | -0.478 | 0.778 | -0.608 | -0.785 | 0.736 | 2.110 | 73.9% | 0.166 |
| 2026-10-17 10:30 | 120 | -0.546 | 0.855 | -0.576 | -0.799 | 0.665 | 2.000 | 77.5% | 0.160 |
| 2026-10-16 10:30 | 118 | -0.527 | 0.841 | -0.569 | -0.799 | 0.667 | 2.013 | 76.3% | 0.164 |
| 2026-10-15 10:30 | 107 | -0.259 | 0.790 | -0.626 | -0.760 | 0.665 | 2.013 | 74.8% | 0.159 |
| 2026-10-14 10:30 | 105 | -0.064 | 0.800 | -0.628 | -0.784 | 0.618 | 2.022 | 76.2% | 0.157 |
| 2026-10-13 10:30 | 89 | -0.007 | 0.686 | -0.613 | -0.769 | 0.670 | 1.892 | 77.5% | 0.156 |
| 2026-10-12 10:30 | 86 | -0.203 | 0.733 | -0.537 | -0.793 | 0.636 | 1.873 | 75.6% | 0.156 |
| 2026-10-11 10:30 | 83 | -0.250 | 0.732 | -0.589 | -0.766 | 0.674 | 1.888 | 75.9% | 0.158 |
| 2026-10-10 10:30 | 69 | -0.408 | 0.740 | -0.648 | -0.612 | 0.614 | 1.818 | 78.3% | 0.143 |
| 2026-10-09 10:30 | 65 | -0.398 | 0.752 | -0.649 | -0.626 | 0.603 | 1.819 | 75.4% | 0.146 |