Today's slate 2026-11-04
Senators @ Sabres
2026-11-04
Model line: Sabres +0.89
(expected MOV -0.89)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabres (H) | 46.3% | +116 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Senators | 53.7% | -116 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sabres: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Sabres: 4 days rest
Blackhawks @ Panthers
2026-11-04
Model line: Panthers -2.96
(expected MOV +2.96)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers (H) | 70.6% | -240 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blackhawks | 29.4% | +240 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sharks @ Kings
2026-11-04
Model line: Kings +1.03
(expected MOV -1.03)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings (H) | 45.3% | +121 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sharks | 54.7% | -121 | — | — | — | — | — |
Kings: 4 days rest
Kings: Rest edge: Kings (4d vs 2d)
Flames @ Kraken
2026-11-04
Model line: Kraken -2.00
(expected MOV +2.00)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken (H) | 65.0% | -186 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flames | 35.0% | +186 | — | — | — | — | — |
Kraken: 5 days rest
Kraken: Rest edge: Kraken (5d vs 2d)
Mammoth @ Canadiens
2026-11-05
Model line: Canadiens +0.47
(expected MOV -0.47)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadiens (H) | 49.0% | +104 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mammoth | 51.0% | -104 | — | — | — | — | — |
Canadiens: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Mammoth: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Golden Knights @ Red Wings
2026-11-05
Model line: Red Wings +0.35
(expected MOV -0.35)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Wings (H) | 49.8% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Golden Knights | 50.2% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Red Wings: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Golden Knights: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Golden Knights: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Blackhawks @ Lightning
2026-11-05
Model line: Lightning -3.81
(expected MOV +3.81)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning (H) | 75.1% | -301 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blackhawks | 24.9% | +301 | — | — | — | — | — |
Lightning: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Blues @ Devils
2026-11-05
Model line: Devils -1.24
(expected MOV +1.24)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devils (H) | 60.3% | -152 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blues | 39.7% | +152 | — | — | — | — | — |
Devils: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Devils: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Blues: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Hurricanes @ Islanders
2026-11-05
Model line: Islanders +0.76
(expected MOV -0.76)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders (H) | 47.1% | +112 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricanes | 52.9% | -112 | — | — | — | — | — |
Islanders: 4 days rest
Hurricanes: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Islanders: Rest edge: Islanders (4d vs 1d)
Flyers @ Rangers
2026-11-05
Model line: Rangers -2.64
(expected MOV +2.64)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers (H) | 68.8% | -220 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flyers | 31.2% | +220 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Flyers: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Flyers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Bruins @ Penguins
2026-11-05
Model line: Penguins -0.21
(expected MOV +0.21)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penguins (H) | 53.6% | -115 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruins | 46.4% | +115 | — | — | — | — | — |
Penguins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Bruins: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Stars @ Blue Jackets
2026-11-05
Model line: Blue Jackets +1.26
(expected MOV -1.26)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jackets (H) | 43.8% | +128 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stars | 56.2% | -128 | — | — | — | — | — |
Blue Jackets: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Blue Jackets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Stars: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Canucks @ Jets
2026-11-05
Model line: Jets -0.38
(expected MOV +0.38)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets (H) | 54.7% | -121 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Canucks | 45.3% | +121 | — | — | — | — | — |
Jets: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Jets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Canucks: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Ducks @ Oilers
2026-11-05
Model line: Oilers +0.47
(expected MOV -0.47)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers (H) | 49.0% | +104 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ducks | 51.0% | -104 | — | — | — | — | — |
Oilers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Ducks: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Predators @ Avalanche
2026-11-05
Model line: Avalanche -2.68
(expected MOV +2.68)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche (H) | 69.0% | -223 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Predators | 31.0% | +223 | — | — | — | — | — |
Avalanche: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Predators: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Blue Jackets @ Sabres
2026-11-06
Model line: Sabres -0.02
(expected MOV +0.02)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabres (H) | 52.3% | -109 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blue Jackets | 47.7% | +109 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sabres: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Sabres: 4 days rest
Blue Jackets: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Blue Jackets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Sabres: Rest edge: Sabres (4d vs 1d)
Sharks @ Wild
2026-11-06
Model line: Wild -1.15
(expected MOV +1.15)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wild (H) | 59.7% | -148 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sharks | 40.3% | +148 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wild: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Wild: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Ducks @ Flames
2026-11-06
Model line: Flames +0.29
(expected MOV -0.29)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Puck line | Cover % | PL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flames (H) | 50.2% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ducks | 49.8% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Ducks: Back-to-back — played yesterday